The Numbers Game: Rampant England aim to finish strong
Eleven goals in three games, a seven-goal demolition of Croatia and one more night at Wembley: England finish their extended international window against Czechia with a third straight Nations League victory in their sights.
Thomas Tuchel’s side began their campaign with a 3-2 home defeat to world champions Spain, but have responded with a 2-0 win in Prague and a spectacular 7-0 victory over Croatia. Czechia visit Wembley on Tuesday, just a week after the teams’ first meeting.
Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka struck twice each against Croatia, while Jude Bellingham added a goal and three assists. Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers also scored as England’s attacking options delivered in emphatic fashion.
Pavel Sulc’s red card midway through the first half helped England on their way in Prague. The return fixture brings a struggling Czechia side to a venue where their record against the Three Lions offers little encouragement.
England firmly favoured
Opta model · 10,000 simulations- England win
- 79.8%
- Draw
- 12.3%
- Czechia win
- 7.9%
Those are predictions, but the head-to-head record explains England’s status as clear favourites. Czechia have lost six of their eight competitive meetings with England, winning the other two. On each previous occasion they have suffered back-to-back defeats in this fixture, however, they have responded with a win. They arrive having lost the last two.
At Wembley, England are unbeaten in eight meetings with Czechia, recording six wins and two draws. The most recent was a 1-0 victory to complete their Euro 2020 group-stage campaign.
Following the defeat to Spain, England are also looking to avoid consecutive competitive home losses for the first time since defeats to Scotland in November 1999 and Germany in October 2000.
Tuchel’s attack finds its voice
Tuchel’s pragmatic approach in the World Cup semi-final defeat to Argentina frustrated supporters who believed England had the attacking talent to take the initiative against most opponents. That quality has been much more apparent over the past fortnight.
Across their last four matches in all competitions, England have beaten France 6-4 and Croatia 7-0. It is the first time they have scored at least six goals in two different games in a calendar year since 2019. They last managed it in three games in 1908.
While Kane remains the focal point, the players behind the Bayern Munich captain are making a compelling case for an assertive approach.
Gordon’s scoring run
Four appearances. Four scoring games.
Another goal would make Anthony Gordon the first England player other than Kane to score in five consecutive appearances since Wayne Rooney between October 2014 and March 2015.
Gordon has scored two headers in his last two England appearances, despite never scoring one across 248 club appearances. The Barcelona winger is also the only player besides Kane to register a goal involvement in five consecutive England appearances over the last decade, with four goals and two assists in that sequence.
Saka’s double against Croatia brought a different first: he had never previously scored two right-footed goals in a senior match for club or country.
Bellingham, meanwhile, contributed directly to more than two goals in an England game for the first time. His three assists made him the first Three Lions player to achieve that tally in a match since Trent Alexander-Arnold against San Marino in November 2021.
England have lost Alex Scott, who faces up to two months out, and Ezri Konsa to injury, with Rico Lewis called up. Their attack, though, remains fit and firing.
Czechia under pressure at both ends
Czechia sit bottom of the group after three defeats: 3-1 against Spain, 2-0 against England and 2-1 against Croatia. Santi Denia has lost all three matches in charge and could become the second manager to lose his first four with the nation, after Vaclav Jezek in 1973, when the team competed as Czechoslovakia.
Their difficulties extend beyond this campaign. Czechia have lost five of their last six games in all competitions, drawing the other, and have been beaten in each of their last four. They last lost five consecutively between July 1972 and March 1973.
Czechia’s Nations League numbers
- Expected goals
- 1.73
- Shots taken
- 16
- Shots faced
- 56
- Goals conceded
- 7
Their 1.73 expected goals is the sixth-lowest total among teams in the 2026-27 Nations League. Only Gibraltar, with 14, and Liechtenstein, with nine, have attempted fewer shots.
At the other end, only six teams have conceded more goals. Czechia have allowed an average of 18.7 shots per game, with 22 of the 56 attempts they have faced hitting the target.
Limited attacking output and an exposed defence make a visit to this free-scoring England side a particularly difficult assignment.
Players to watch
England
Harry Kane
If Kane plays, he will make his 125th England appearance, drawing level with Peter Shilton as the Three Lions’ all-time most-capped player.
His double against Croatia made him the first player to score at least 10 goals for England in three different calendar years. He has 11 in 2026, following 16 in 2021 and 12 in 2019.
With 89 goals in 124 appearances, another prolific outing would take Kane closer to a century. His immediate target is to put his best international scoring year within reach before 2026 ends.
Czechia
Adam Hlozek
Amid Czechia’s attacking struggles, Hlozek has offered some encouragement. Across their past three matches, he leads the squad for goal involvements with two assists, shots with four and chances created with four.
England’s defence may expect a quieter evening than Czechia’s, but Hlozek’s ability to create opportunities gives the hosts a threat to contain if they are to finish the window with another victory.
