Premier League predictions: Arsenal and Chelsea face off in battle to maintain perfect starts

Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Hull City are aiming to protect their 100% records in the Premier League this weekend after statement wins on matchday two.

City thumped Crystal Palace 4-1 at Selhurst Park before Hull downed Coventry City 1-0 and Chelsea edged Brighton 4-3, as Xabi Alonso's first home game in charge produced a thriller.

Arsenal battled to a 1-0 win themselves at Villa Park on Monday, with Aston Villa joining Tottenham in the relegation zone after the latter were defeated by Newcastle United.

However, one of the four perfect teams so far are guaranteed to drop points on matchday three, with the Gunners hosting Chelsea on Sunday.

Ahead of what should be another intriguing group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

IPSWICH TOWN V LIVERPOOL

The action starts on Friday, and Andoni Iraola remains in search of his first win as Liverpool boss as they travel to Ipswich Town.

Liverpool are deemed the most likely away winners by our predictive model this week, with a 59.3% win probability. They are unbeaten in all six of their Premier League trips to Portman Road (W4 D2).

The Tractor Boys, who won 19.7% of the pre-match simulations, have lost their last four top-flight games against Liverpool, conceding 17 goals in the process.

However, Ipswich are unbeaten in their last 18 home league games (17 in the Championship, one in the Premier League) and Gary O’Neil is the last manager to beat Liverpool while in charge of a newly promoted side (with Bournemouth in March 2023).

Liverpool are in desperate need of a win, despite being unbeaten in 20 against promoted opposition, as they are winless in six league games (D4 L2) dating back to 2025-26.

NEWCASTLE UNITED V BOURNEMOUTH

Another manager still in search of his first win is Marco Rose with Bournemouth (31.2%), and they travel to Newcastle (43.9%), who have settled into life under Matthias Jaissle comfortably.

Despite being the supercomputer's favourites, the Magpies are winless in their last eight Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (D5 L3), since a 4-1 victory in July 2020 against a Cherries side managed by Eddie Howe.

Bournemouth have won their last two away Premier League matches against Newcastle and have a 1.75 points-per-game average at St. James’ Park (14 points in eight games).

The Cherries have opened the scoring but failed to win in their last two games, but they did get a draw last time out versus Everton. In fact, they’ve drawn 19 Premier League matches since the start of last season, with a 24.9% chance of another stalemate here.

BRENTFORD V SUNDERLAND

Brentford’s strong home form is expected to continue this weekend as they welcome Sunderland to the Gtech Community Stadium.

The Bees have kept five clean sheets in their 11 Premier League home games in 2026, including in three of the last four. That is as many shutouts as they kept at the Gtech Community Stadium in both 2025 (two) and 2024 (three) combined.

Brentford are unbeaten in four home games against Sunderland in all competitions (W2 D2) since losing 1-0 in August 1987 in a third-tier meeting, and they are expected to stretch that run to five, with a 60.7% win likelihood.

Sunderland made it back-to-back victories in only 17.4% of the simulations, and they have won just eight points in their last 16 top-flight matches in London (W2 D2 L12), losing their last three.

However, they’ve never lost consecutive league meetings with Brentford, having suffered a 3-0 defeat in their most recent clash in March.

BRIGHTON V LEEDS UNITED

Brighton have started the new campaign with a bang, thrashing Aston Villa before ending on the wrong side of a seven-goal thriller against Chelsea.

But they are expected to bounce back against Leeds United, who are unbeaten so far, with the Seagulls' hopes rated at 50.4% as they’re unbeaten in their last 10 home league games against the Whites (W7 D3).

Leeds have a 24.5% chance of victory, slightly less than the 25.1% chance of a draw, and they did win their last league game against Brighton 1-0 at Elland Road, though they’ve never won consecutive top-flight matches against them.

In fact, Leeds have played more matches without winning at the Amex than any other stadium in their entire history (P10 D3 L7).

FULHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE

Alvaro Arbeloa and Pierre Sage have both struggled to settle into the Premier League so far, with Fulham and Palace, making Saturday's head-to-head clash a big one.

This is the most likely fixture to end in a draw this weekend at 26.8%, but Fulham are still tipped as favourites, winning 43.8% of the supercomputer’s simulations.

The Cottagers have won just two of their last 13 Premier League matches against Palace (D6 L5), though, with both wins coming at Selhurst Park in 2022-23 and 2024-25.

In what could be a good omen for Sage, Palace, who have a 29.4% win likelihood, are unbeaten in their last seven top-flight matches at Craven Cottage (W4 D3).

Only in 1951-52 and 2020-21 have Fulham lost each of their first three games in a top-flight campaign, being relegated on both occasions, while Palace are looking to avoid losing their opening three top-flight matches for the first time since 2017-18.

MANCHESTER CITY V COVENTRY CITY

The supercomputer's most likely winners on MD3 are City, who will look to continue their perfect start under Enzo Maresca at home to Coventry City.

City could win their opening three matches of a Premier League campaign for the third time in four attempts, after 2023-24 and 2024-25, and they boast a 30-game unbeaten streak against newly promoted sides (W27 D3), dating back to April 2021 (1-2 versus Leeds).

Coventry, meanwhile, are yet to pick up a point or score a goal this season. They have never lost their first three games of any league campaign without finding the net, only ever starting with three defeats in 1919-20, 1949-50 and 2011-12.

And Frank Lampard's side are huge outsiders on Saturday, with the predictive model assigning them a mere 6.8% win probability, compared to City's 82.4%.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST V TOTTENHAM

There are two other teams yet to pick up a point or find the net this season, and both are in action on Saturday.

The first of them is Tottenham, with Roberto De Zerbi's men hoping to end their nightmare start to the campaign away to Nottingham Forest.

Having lost 3-0 at Brentford and 2-0 to Newcastle, Spurs could open a league campaign with three straight defeats for only the fifth time ever, previously doing so in 1912-13, 1958-59, 1974-75 and 1979-80.

The only previous instance of them failing to score in their first three games of a season was in 1974-75, and they last went three Premier League matches without netting in November 2021.

Forest are also yet to taste victory, though, earning one point from their first two matches under Oliver Glasner. The Austrian went 12 Premier League games unbeaten with Crystal Palace from April to September 2025, but since last October, Scott Parker (18) is the only manager to suffer more defeats in the competition than his 16.

The supercomputer makes Forest favourites at the City Ground, but only just. Their win probability is rated at 39.2%, with Spurs' hopes at 34.6% and the remaining 26.2% of simulations being drawn.

HULL CITY V ASTON VILLA

Never mind a point or a goal, Aston Villa are still yet to have a shot on target this term, and in Saturday's late kick-off, they face a Hull City side on maximum points after two matches.

No team on record (since 2003-04) has ever started a Premier League season by failing to register a shot on target in their first three matches, and the only other team to do so through their first two games was Swansea City in 2017-18, who went on to be relegated.

Villa have won six of their eight Premier League meetings with Hull (D1 L1), though they lost the last such matchup in February 2015, 2-0 away from home.

The Tigers could become only the second newly promoted team to start a Premier League season with three straight wins, after Bolton Wanderers in 2001-02, and they have never won their first three matches of any top-flight campaign before.

Sergej Jakirović's side have been excellent this campaign, and their 34.8% chance of victory is only marginally lower than the 39.3% assigned to Unai Emery's visitors – the chances of a draw stand at 25.9%.

EVERTON V MANCHESTER UNITED

The first of two games on Sunday pits Everton against Manchester United at Hill Dickinson Stadium, with the Toffees looking to win back-to-back matches at the venue for only the second time, previously doing so in March against Burnley (2-0) and Chelsea (3-0).

United came from behind to beat Ipswich 5-2 last weekend, staving off the possibility of becoming the first team to start a Premier League season with back-to-back losses against promoted clubs.

This will be 20th Premier League game of Michael Carrick's second stint in charge of United, with no side winning more points (42) than the Red Devils in this period.

Only five managers have won 45+ points in their first 20 games from the start of a tenure with a club: José Mourinho in his first spell with Chelsea (49), Antonio Conte with Chelsea (49), John Gregory with Aston Villa (48), Arne Slot with Liverpool (47) and Carlo Ancelotti with Chelsea (45).

And with David Moyes losing 23 Premier League matches against United (only Harry Redknapp has ever lost more against the Red Devils, with 24), the visitors have the edge.

United won 43.7% of our pre-match simulations, with Everton triumphing in 31%.

ARSENAL V CHELSEA

A big London derby then brings the curtain down on MD3, as two of the four teams with perfect records – Arsenal and Chelsea – go head-to-head at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal have only started one of the last 21 Premier League seasons with three victories, in 2022-23, while Chelsea last opened with three wins in 2018-19 under Maurizio Sarri.

But the Gunners have lost just one of their last 29 Premier League London derbies (W22 D6) and are unbeaten in their last 16 (W12 D4). The last side to have a longer unbeaten run was Arsenal themselves, between August 2022 and November 2023 (17 games).

Mikel Arteta's champions are assigned a 56.8% win probability to Chelsea's 20%, and this match should present an intriguing clash of styles.

Across the first two matchdays, Arsenal faced the fewest shots (11), the fewest shots on target (one) and the lowest expected goals against figure (0.54 xGA) of any Premier League side.

Chelsea's first two games, by contrast, saw a total of 12 goals scored (seven for, five against). They could become the first top-flight team to see their opening three games of a season contain 5+ goals since Arsenal in 1988-89.