Every Premier League Club’s Remaining Schedule—Ranked From Easiest to Hardest
“It’s a new Premier League now," Mikel Arteta declared after watching his Arsenal side painfully lose their ascendancy over Manchester City in the title race at the Etihad Stadium.
As much as the Gunners may wish to wash away the previous few weeks, the campaign’s conclusion only stands to serve as an addendum to what unfolded over the first eight months of the season. In the eyes of many, much has already been decided.
Arsenal’s traditional spring collapse has supposedly given way to another City title procession, while Chelsea’s defeat to Manchester United rubber-stamped the Champions League qualification battle. Tottenham Hotspur’s dramatic draw with Brighton & Hove Albion also sealed their fate for a large portion of onlookers. However, the upcoming fixtures suggest otherwise.
Many of those teams in positions of strength have decidedly tougher run-ins than their direct opponents. Rather than a question of guesswork, Opta’s statistical power ranking of each club puts an exact figure on how difficult each team’s remaining games actually are.
Arsenal Given Boost Over Man City
Pep Guardiola is aiming to lift his fifth league title in six seasons. / Catherine Ivilll/AMA/Getty Images
| Arsenal – Quality of Opponent | Man City – Quality of Opponent |
|---|---|
| Newcastle (H) – 91.8 | Burnley (A) – 84 |
| Fulham (H) – 89.6 | Everton (A) – 90.9 |
| West Ham (A) – 87.8 | Brentford (H) – 91.3 |
| Burnley (H) – 84 | Bournemouth (A) – 91.7 |
| Crystal Palace (A) – 89.7 | Aston Villa (H) – 93.9 |
| - | *Crystal Palace (H) - 89.7 |
| Average – 88.6 | Average – 90.3 |
* Fixture yet to be scheduled. Higher the number, better the team.
Pep Guardiola had every reason to gloat in the aftermath of City’s 2–1 victory over Arsenal at the Etihad. After effectively ceding the title race back in March, the Catalan coach has once again managed to reel in Arteta’s side.
However, Guardiola took the cautious approach, even if he was wearing a wry smile. “Still we are ‘hopes,’” he grinned, pointing out that City remain second in the league, “but the only reality is that we have a terrible calendar, in terms of the quality of the opponents.” For all the performative gesturing of title race mind games, Guardiola had a point.
Arsenal face a demonstrably more straightforward set of opponents than Manchester City. All five of the Gunners’ remaining foes lie in the bottom half of the table and have already lost to Arteta’s side this season. City, by contrast, have a tough trip away to Everton while also hosting high-flying Brentford and Champions League-chasing Aston Villa.
Yet, for an Arsenal team enduring something akin to a psychological unraveling, any opponent at this stage of the season is tough. The precise opposite is true for City.
Across Guardiola's previous 20 Premier League matches in April and May, he has collected 56 points from a possible 60.
Champions League Race Could Still Twist
Man Utd edged a crucial battle against Chelsea. / Chelsea Football Club/Chelsea FCGetty Images
| Man Utd | Aston Villa | Liverpool | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (H) – 91.3 | Fulham (A) – 89.6 | Crystal Palace (H) – 89.7 | Brighton (A) – 92.5 |
| Liverpool (H) – 93.6 | Tottenham (H) – 88.3 | Man Utd (A) – 92.7 | Nott’m Forest – 89.6 |
| Sunderland (A) – 88 | Burnley (A) – 84 | Chelsea (H) – 92.1 | Liverpool (A) – 93.6 |
| Nott’m Forest (H) 89.6 | Liverpool (H) – 93.6 | Aston Villa (A) – 93.9 | Tottenham (H) – 88.3 |
| Brighton (A) – 92.5 | Man City (A) – 96.9 | Brentford (H) – 91.3 | Sunderland (A) – 88 |
| Average – 91 | Average – 90.5 | Average – 91.9 | Average – 90.4 |
Even Liam Rosenior was forced to admit that Chelsea had made life “very difficult” for themselves in their quest for Champions League qualification. The Blues head into the final five rounds of fixtures seven points adrift of Liverpool in fifth place.
For some, Chelsea’s best chance of sneaking back into Europe’s premier club competition is if Aston Villa drop into fifth and win the Europa League. The Premier League has already booked an extra ticket into the competition but that doesn’t automatically go to fifth place: It is handed to the highest ranked team not already qualified for the Champions League. If Villa were to win the Europa League, booking an alternative avenue to Europe’s top table, and finish fifth, that would see sixth place join them there.
Nevertheless, Chelsea have, on paper, the easiest run-in of all the Champions League chasers. Liverpool, the Blues’ closest challengers, have the hardest, with direct matchups against all three of Manchester United, Villa and Chelsea yet to come.
“What we can’t do is give up,” Rosenior concluded, “We keep fighting.” There is plenty of reason to expect some more twists and turns to come in this particular battle.
Relegation Battle
Tottenham threw away what looked like a surefire win. / Catherine Ivill/AMA/Getty Images
| Tottenham | West Ham | Nott’m Forest | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves (A) – 85.4 | Everton (H) – 90.9 | Sunderland (A) – 88 | Bournemouth (A) – 91.7 |
| Aston Villa (A) – 93.9 | Brentford (A) – 91.3 | Chelsea (A) – 92.1 | Burnley (H) – 84 |
| Leeds (H) – 88.7 | Arsenal (H) – 99 | Newcastle (H) – 91.8 | Tottenham (A) – 88.3 |
| Chelsea (A) – 92.1 | Newcastle (A) – 91.8 | Man Utd (A) – 92.7 |
| Brighton (H) - 92.5
Everton (H) - 90.9| Leeds (H) - 88.7| Bournemouth (H) – 91.7| West Ham (A) - 87.8
Average – 90.2| Average – 92.3| Average – 91.3| Average – 88.9
Roberto De Zerbi annoyed a lot of Tottenham fans with some outspoken statements before he even joined the club. The reaction to his latest outburst has caused more confusion than consternation. “This team is able to win five games in a row,” he declared after watching the club’s winless run extend to 15 Premier League matches.
“Now, it is difficult to hear my words,” De Zerbi continued, “but if you watch the players and analyze the level of the players, I think we can win five games in a row.” The level of Tottenham’s upcoming opponents will also help.
Spurs have a kinder run-in than their closest relegation battlers West Ham United and Nottingham Forest. The Hammers still have tough trips to Brentford and Newcastle as well as an unwanted clash with league leaders Arsenal, while Vítor Pereira’s Midlands outfit also take on the Magpies and Manchester United.
It is by no means plain-sailing for Spurs—at this rate, the upcoming trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Molineux could prove to be catastrophic—but there is at least some sliver of hope to cling onto.
Leeds United have no trouble finding optimism amid the run-in. Daniel Farke’s side may already be safe following consecutive wins over Manchester United and Wolves, but also have the added benefit of a relatively straightforward conclusion to the campaign.
Every Premier League Club’s Remaining Schedule—Ranked
Man City’s biggest players stood up to be counted. / Mark Cosgrove/News Images/NurPhoto/Getty Images
| Rank / Team | Games Remaining | Average Opponent Difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Wolves | 5 | 88.5 |
| 2. Arsenal | 5 | 88.6 |
| 3. Leeds | 5 | 88.9 |
| 4. Sunderland | 5 | 90.1 |
| 5. Brighton | 5 | 90.1 |
| 6. Everton | 5 | 90.1 |
| 7. Tottenham | 5 | 90.2 |
| 8. Man City | 6 | 90.3 |
| 9. Chelsea | 5 | 90.4 |
| 10. Aston Villa | 5 | 90.5 |
| 11. Bournemouth | 5 | 90.9 |
| 12. Man Utd | 5 | 91 |
| 13. Nottingham Forest | 5 | 91.3 |
| 14. Newcastle | 5 | 91.7 |
| 15. Liverpool | 5 | 91.9 |
| 16. Brentford | 5 | 92.1 |
| 17. West Ham | 5 | 92.3 |
| 18. Fulham | 5 | 92.4 |
| 19. Burnley | 5 | 92.8 |
| 20. Crystal Palace | 6 | 93.9 |
