The Narrow Margins That Could Decide Premier League Title Race
To say the Premier League title race is heating up would be an understatement.
Manchester City’s 2–1 win over Arsenal on Sunday has given Pep Guardiola’s side the chance to move level with the league-leading Gunners on points. If both sides win all their remaining fixtures, they will each end the season on 85 points.
If that happens, just how will the winner of the Premier League title be crowned?
If Arsenal and Man City Are Tied on Points
Arsenal and Man City are neck and neck. / David Price/Arsenal FC/Getty Images
The first place to look to when needing to separate two teams who are tied on points in the goal difference column, made up of the total number of goals scored minus the number of goals conceded.
As it stands, Arsenal have a narrow advantage here, +37 compared to City’s +36. With so few games remaining, it is entirely feasible that the two title rivals will finish the season tied up in this column.
If that happens, we move down to the next decider.
If Arsenal and Man City Are Tied on Goal Difference
Man City have the edge. / Visionhaus/Getty Images
If both sides are locked together on both points and goal difference, it’s the number of goals scored that will decide which team moves top.
Fascinatingly, Arsenal and City are incredibly close here, too. The Cityzens have struck 65 goals in 32 games, putting them two clear of their rivals, who have netted 63 times in 33 outings.
In the unlikely event that the two teams need something else to separate them, it starts to get a little more specific.
If Arsenal and Man City Are Still Tied
Arsenal will lose out if things get this complex. / Mark Cosgrove/News Images/NurPhoto/Getty Images
The head-to-head record between the two sides in need of separating is the next thing that will decide which team gets their hands on the trophy.
Having now played both their games this season, we know there is a definitive leader in this regard, and that honor goes to City. After a 1–1 draw in September, Guardiola’s side snatched the edge with a 2–1 victory at the Etihad Stadium.
Away goals in those head-to-head meetings would be the next level considered but, clearly, that will not be needed in this season’s title race, nor will the drastic measure of a final playoff between Arsenal and City in a neutral venue that would have been ordered if the two teams still could not be separated.
Never before in Premier League history has a playoff been needed to separate two sides.
